Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”