Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
