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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.