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At first, the former US president seemed to take a strong stance regarding Ukraine. Following making threats of "serious consequences" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin continued hindering truce discussions, he eventually imposed considerable restrictions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously hindered Putin's ability to finance his war effort in the region.

However, through his newly presented 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, that was drafted by both nations' officials without Ukraine's or EU input, the former president has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

This initiative would essentially reward the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite strong statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", large portions of the plan actually undermine that same sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business background, the former president seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple land disagreement, like ceding Putin a part of Ukraine's land will please the ruler. But, Putin's war is not simply about dominating a destroyed area of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to weaken it so it stops functions as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the accountable government that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Land Giveaways

While keeping in place the presently divided regions of these areas, the initiative would force Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. Beyond benefiting Russia with territory that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in over a lengthy period of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian military defenses dangerously compromised.

Donetsk is the place of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified military defenses that represent a essential barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, giving Putin a unobstructed path to the capital in case he eventually choose to restart the war.

Defense Restrictions

Then, in a step that would enable future conflict easier for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of six hundred thousand. Significantly, Trump's plan places no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to characterize the nation's legitimate government as Nazis, the proposal asserts: "All radical belief system and actions must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal imposes no obligation that Putin jeopardize his regime by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards European nations and Ukraine". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached comparable treaties in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to recognize Ukraine's borders in exchange for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a return of seized territory in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should anyone have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western defense commitments. Although the plan threatens a "immediate joint armed reaction" should Russia renew its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the details vary from unclear to alarming. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude member states from deploying military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the reassurance force, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from rebuilding his weakened troops, restocking, and attacking again.

World Reaction

A separate side agreement apparently would provide the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "significant, intentional, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an assault endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This implies a military response. But unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against future invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to respond militarily to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not